Week 14; 22 December 2013
Week 14 Live + 7. 23 December , 2013
Based on week Eleven ratings.
The total lift (number of viewers watching on DVR over the last seven days) for this episode (7.11The Discovery Dissipation)( the episode number was incorrect, it was 7.10, not 7.11. Thanks to Chiany for catching that and letting me know) was 5.19 million. In terms of demo, there was a 2.3 point increase with DVR viewing. With that 2.6 demo lift, the total demo for this episode was a 7.1. This was the lowest total demo for the show this year. With the lift, the total viewers were 20.82 million, the lowest total Live + 7 for the year. Two things, one, the original episode ran after a week off and it ran against The Sound of Music:Live, the highest demo it has run a new show against this year. This doesn't appear to be a trend, as the show the week after this, was up over 2 million viewers on the Live + Same Day.
Even with this episode being the lowest Live + 7 total, TBBT was still the number one entertainment show in the demo with the 7.1. Second place was Modern Family with a 5.5 and third was The Blacklist with a 5.2. Even thought TBBT's 4.8 demo for Live + SD was tied for the lowest of the year, it was still higher than all the shows Live + 7 except Modern Family at 5.5 and The Blacklist with a 5.2. In terms of demo lift, the top three were TBBT with 2.3, second place was Modern Family at 2.2 and third was The Blacklist at 2.0.
For viewers, the top show was TBBT with 20.82 million, The Sound of Music: Live was second with 20.18 million viewers and third was The Blacklist with 17.54 Million. The closest half hour comedy was Modern Family, with 14.14 million viewers. The top three in terms of viewer lift were The Blacklist, with 5.86 million, TBBT with 5.19 million, and Elementary with 4.85 million .
I'll note, The Sound of Music: Live, really seemed to be a live event and the number for it above are estimates. it did not make either the highest demo lift (which means it is below 0.6, nor did it make the highest viewer lift (which means it is below 1.5 million.
Tuesday, December 24,2013. Weekly Rankings Week 14
ratings based on Week thirteen numbers.
It's come to the point in the season where the networks are hit or miss concerning new shows. For instance, except for Monday night, all of CBS' comedies were repeats. For the week, Sunday Night Football (SNF) led the demo with a 6.2 rating andNCIS led viewers with 19.65 million. TBBT, with a repeat, was number 6 in demo and number 8 in viewers. Again, remember this was a repeat. It was the highest rated half hour comedy, the closest new show was How I Met Your Mother, with a 2.7 and the next highest comedy repeat was Mondern Family with a 1.7.
The top ten in demo follows.
Show 18-49 demo 18-49 viewers
SNF 6.2 7,931,000
The Voice (Tue) 4.0 5,051,000
SNF Pregame 3.6 4,550,000
The Voice (Mon) 3.3 4,247,000
NCIS 2.9 3,646,000
TBBT (R ) 2.8 3,588,000
How I Met Your Mother 2.7 3,469,000
NCIS:LA 2.4 3,081,000
2 Broke Girls 2.3 2,936,000
Barbara Walters Presents (S) 2.2 2,832,000
Repeats are show with an (R ) and Specials with an (S)
Show Total viewers
The Voice (Mon) 14,010,000
The Voice (Tue) 12,681,000
Person of Interest 12,397,000
60 Minutes 11,966,000
TBBT (R ) 11,251,000
SNF Pregame 10,617,000
Blue Bloods 10,524,000
As with any repeat, we won't have access to the Live + 7 data for TBBT, for this week.
I'll have to wait to see exactly when the Syndication results will be released this week. If it's later today, I'll try to get to it tonight. If it's tomorrow or Thursday, it won't be until Thursday.
Posted on 24 December, 2013 Syndication for Week 14.
Based on week thirteen ratings.
OK, the syndication ratings came in this afternoon, so I am able to get the post done tonight. While the rankings for household rating remained the same, rankings for viewers, again, changed quite a bit this week. TBBT finished in fourth place, behind Judge Judy(JJ) and Wheel of Fortune (WF) and Jeopardy (JY) in the household rating (we normally look at the 18-49 demo, but in syndication, it's more how many households and total viewers). JJ led with a 7.5, WF was second with a 7.2, JY had a 6.7 and TBBT was at 6.3. As usual, WF was first in viewers with 11.61 million, over a million ahead of second place JY with a 10.53. JJ finished third with 10.32 and TBBT was fourth with 9.97. The weekend version of TBBT was fifth, with a 5.6 demo, with 8.83 million viewers.
If you look at the syndication ratings, the #1 and #7 programs were football and Weekend Adventure a three hour block for kids on Saturday mornings, was second. Due to a quirk of how the ratings are collected, football and Saturday kids shows show up in the syndication ratings, although they shouldn't. What happens is that it is published with the syndication, then basically ignored on the list .
To all, a happy holiday season, no matter what holiday you celebrate.
News and Notes for week 14, 25 December, 2013
Over the last several weeks, two articles, written by Oma bin, have been posted at Spoliler TV . The first, on December 10th, covered ABC and FOX . The second, published on December 22, covered CBS and NBC . If you haven’t read them, you should head over there right now and do so. They are an excellent analysis of the whether a show may be cancelled or not, and why.
While reading the articles, I realized that it would be possible to play around with the numbers a bit, and possibly find some interesting tidbits or squeeze out some different way of looking at things. Now, before I do this, I want to stress that while the numbers are valid, manipulating them the way I am going to, may not be entirely valid. Oma bin used them to compare shows on the same network and to dig into whether or not a show, ON A SPECIFIC NETWORK, will be renewed compared to other shows on the network. Comparing them across networks, may not be valid, but in a general sense, I think it is valid enough for my points to be understood.
I want to thank Spoiler TV and darkUFO (who currently heads the site) for permission to use the data, and of course, Oma bin for the excellent articles. I want to stress that I am only using the data from Oma bin. Any errors, incorrect calculations, or erroneous conclusions, based on my speculations, are my fault, not Oma bin’s.
Let me make a few observations. One, Oma bin, with a limited amount of comedies available on NBC, chose to use the entire network scripted average. While this is a valid way of trying to smooth out large changes do to a small sample size, I’m not doing that. I’m going to use just the average of the four comedies, to maintain consistency over the four networks.
Also, some of the numbers may look a bit different than numbers that I’ve used in several posts here. I suspect that Oma bin has used all the shows in a particular time slot. There have been 11 new TBBT, with an average rating of 5.25. There have(at the time the article was written) been seven repeats. Three on Mondays, and four on Thursdays. Since I’m not sure exactly which repeats, if any, that Oma bin used, I’ll just keep using Oma bin’s numbers, to be consistent.
Finally, as Oma bin notes, the data used in the articles are based on the more recent ratings, not the entire season. To maintain consistency for my calculations, I’m just using the show numbers in the article and I also added back the comedies that were cancelled. This gives a bit of a different average for each network from the ones Oma bin used. In the following tables, Oma bin’s average, for each network is on the top line of each grouping. The average I’m using is in the blurb following each grouping.
So, now that all the disclaimers are out of the way, let’s look at the numbers for each of the Networks. Each line has the Show and the network (shows are grouped by network). These are followed by the shows 18-49 rating and the percentage of the network average. Shows with a ( C ) after them, have already been cancelled:
ABC 1. 80
Modern Family 3.60 194%
The Middle 2.20 119%
Super Fun Night 1. 80 97%
Back in the Game ( C ) 1.75 94%
Last Man Standing 1.60 86%
The Goldbergs 1.60 86%
Trophy Wife 1.20 65%
The Neighbors 1.10 59%
Note: The comedy average for ABC was a 1.85 rating
New Girl 1. 80 128%
Brooklyn 99 1.50 107%
Mindy Project 1.30 92%
Dads 1.30 92%
Raising Hope 1.10 78%
Note:The comedy average for FOX was a 1.40 rating
Parks and Recreation 1.00 105%
Sean Saves the World 1.00 105%
The Michael J. Fox Show 0.90 94%
Welcome to the Family ( C ) 0.90 94%
Note: The rating for NBC comedies was 0.95. Remember, Oma bin used the full network average, which was 1.60.
The Big Bang Theory 5.10 198%
2 Broke Girls 2.60 101%
The Millers 2.60 101%
Mike and Molly 2.20 85%
The Crazy Ones 2.10 82%
Two and a Half Men 2.10 82%
Mom 2.00 78%
We Are Men ( C ) 1.90 74%
Note: The average for CBS comedies was 2.58
The rating numbers are what Oma bin used in the articles (the percentages are a bit different due to differences I explained above.) The first thing to note is how strong the CBS comedies are. They are the only ones that are averaging above a 2.5. Of course, TBBT is huge and contributes to that. But, even if TBBT is taken out, the CBS comedies still come at 2.2, four tenths of a point ahead of the next closest network and the only average above a 2.0.
The other thing to note is just how awful the NBC comedies are doing. The highest rated NBC comedy would be in last place on every other network. Conversely, on CBS, We Are Men was canceled with a 1.9 rating. That rating would have made it a top three comedy on ABC (the second strongest network), and the number one comedy on FOX and NBC.
One other thing I should point out. While the raw rating numbers, in this case the number after a show, not the percentage, is the basic thing used for deciding to cancel a show, it’s not always cut and dried. Lead in rating, night of broadcast, how close to syndication and cost of the show all figure into it.
For instance, 2 Broke Girls is one season away from having enough episodes to go into syndication (usually thought to be 88 episodes or so). The production company, as Oma bin pointed out, would probably give CBS a reduction on the licensing costs, to make sure that fourth season get’s produced (it’s actually a moot point, as 2 Broke Girls is tied for the third highest rated comedy, it’s in no danger of being cancelled), as the money made from syndication can subsidize that last year of needed shows. Also, if a show is produced by the networks production company, it has an advantage, as the network is making money from the production of the show.
Next, I’ll start manipulating the numbers. I’m going to combine all the shows and figure out what the average comedy rating is, and then figure the percentage from that. The following chart lists all the live action comedies:
Show Network Rating Percentage
The Big Bang Theory CBS 5.10 276%
Modern Family ABC 3.60 195%
2 Broke Girls CBS 2.60 141%
The Millers CBS 2.60 141%
The Middle ABC 2.20 119%
Mike and Molly CBS 2.20 119%
The Crazy Ones CBS 2.10 114%
Two and a Half Men CBS 2.10 114%
Mom CBS 2.00 108%
We Are Men ( C ) CBS 1.90 103%
Super Fun Night ABC 1. 80 97%
New Girl FOX 1. 80 97%
Back in the Game ( C ) ABC 1.75 95%
Last Man Standing ABC 1.60 86%
The Goldbergs ABC 1.60 86%
Brooklyn 99 FOX 1.50 81%
Mindy Project FOX 1.30 70%
Dads FOX 1.30 70%
Trophy Wife ABC 1.20 65%
The Neighbors ABC 1.10 59%
Raising Hope FOX 1.10 59%
Parks and Recreation NBC 1.00 54%
Sean Saves the World NBC 1.00 54%
The Michael J. Fox Show NBC 0.90 49%
Welcome to the Family ( C ) NBC 0.90 49%
The broadcast comedy average (25 comedy shows) is right at 1.85, basically the same as ABC. We Are Men, was cancelled, while it’s ratings were above the average of all comedies. As a matter of fact, We Are Men was the 10th highest rated comedy show this fall. It had the unfortunate luck of being on the network with the highest average rating for comedies.
All eight of CBS‘ comedies are in the top ten, the other two are from ABC. The four lowest rated shows are the four shows on NBC. The other two points I want to make are that there is only one show above a 4.0 (TBBT at 5.1) and only one other above a 3.0 (Modern Family at 3.6). Every other show is below a 3.0.
In the next article, I will look at what happens if we move some of the shows to different networks. The move changes the network’s average rating, and also, the percentages of each of the shows.
Overnights 27 December, 2013; Week 14
For Thursday 26 December broadcasts
TBBT ran a repeat of 6.23, The Love Spell Potential and it was the top program of the night in both demo, at 2.6 and in viewers with 10.97 million.
Again, no other show broke a 2.0 and eight of the fourteen shows last night didn't break a 1.0, in demo. TBBT was the only show to break 10 million viewers, and essentially at least brought in double the amount of every other show, except for it's lead out, The Millers. Although, to be fair, there was only one first run show last night, everything else was repeats. In second with a 1.7 demo was The Millers and there was tie for third, with a 1.3 demo between Shark Tank and The Women of SNL. In total viewers The Millers, was in second at 7.44 million and Shark Tank, with 5.58 million was in third. Remember, The Millers is the lead out of TBBT. The Millers lost about 33% of the viewers (3.5 million)and about 33 % of the demo (0.9 rating points). TBBT is usually adjusted up, but, with a repeat, much like last week it's tough to predict. I'll say up one tenth and 120,000 viewers. Hopefully, I'll be closer than I was last week and you won't be able to laugh at me later, when the finals come out.
I will edit this post later today, the time the finals are release will determine when.
Final Ratings for 27 December, 2013; Week 14
For Thursday 26 December broadcasts
TBBT ran a repeat of 6.23, The Love Spell Potential and it was the top program of the night in both demo, at 2.6 and in viewers with
10.97 10.98 million.
Again, no other show broke a 2.0 and eight of the fourteen shows last night didn't break a 1.0, in demo. TBBT was the only show to break 10 million viewers, and essentially at least brought in double the amount of every other show, except for it's lead out, The Millers. With the finals, Shark Tank climbed to 5.67 million, which, if double, would also be higher than TBBT total viewers. Although, to be fair, there was only one first run show last night, everything else was repeats. In second with a
1.7 1.6 demo was The Millers and there was tie for third, with a 1.3 demo between Shark Tank and The Women of SNL. in third was The Women of SNL, with a 1.4. In total viewers The Millers, was in second at 7.44 7.14 million and Shark Tank, with 5.58 5.67 million was in third. Remember, The Millers is the lead out of TBBT. The Millers lost about 33% of the viewers (3.5 million) 35% of the viewers (3.85 million) and about 33 % of the demo (0.9 rating points) 40 % of the demo (1.0 rating points). TBBT is usually adjusted up, but, with a repeat, much like last week it's tough to predict. I'll say up one tenth and 120,000 viewers. Hopefully, I'll be closer than I was last week and you won't be able to laugh at me later, when the finals come out. LOL, you can all laugh, the demo, again, stayed the same and viewers only went up by 10,000 viewers.
One final thing. Last week I gave the rating and viewer average for the repeats (2.7 demo and 10.6 million). This week was down a tenth, from the average (2.6), but increased by 400,000 viewers(10.98 million), from the average.
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Edited by Tensor, 29 December 2013 - 09:37 PM.