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Tensor

Season 7 Ratings Thread.

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Actually, it's 19 million for the first episode(18.99). Whoever can figure out the reason why this show pulls in the ratings it does, they would be rich. I would think it has something to do with having great writers, a great cast who gets along and a great crew who like what they are doing and who they're doing it with. But, that's just a guess. :)

Thanks for the data Tensor, it would be interesting to see how downloads/streams overseas would factor in, a lot of us watch at US pace, due to our crappy local schedulers.

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wow--keep this up and wb,and cbs will have to bring

a boat load of money to the table

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As more info comes in, I'll add it. By setting another series record (IN THEIR SEVENTH YEAR), TBBT has broken it's own series record five times in the last year.

The US wasn't the only country where TBBT was setting records. Seems that people in Canada love this show also. The back to back episodes broke records on Thursday. The Hofstadter Insufficiency pulled in 4.31 million viewers, a record for a TBBT series premiere. The The Deception Verification that followed had the largest audience ever for the series in Canada, with 4.61 million viewers.

Some interesting tidbits about the Canadian Breakouts:

Between 8-9 p.m, as in the US, over half of all English-language viewers were watching THE BIG BANG THEORY on CTV. In Toronto, the premiere pulled down a 17.6 rating for A18-34. In just Ontario alone, more people watched the show (2.2 million people) than any other program broadcast across Canada Thursday night. The A25-54 and A18-49 splits also have over 2 million viewers for each episode.

To give everyone an idea how huge and dominant TBBT was in Canada on Thursday, GREY'S ANATOMY was the second most watched show on Thursday with 2.01 million total viewers, less than half of TBBT show totals and less than the the different demos, which are smaller subsets of the total and less than watched TBBT in one province.

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Tensor, if it may interest you, you can visit the website bbm.ca. You will find the weekly top 30 Tv programms. You can see that most of the time reruns of tbbt are on this top 30 and new episode are always #1 

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Might not be a clear indicator of ratings in New Zealand and Australia, but in 2011 and this year The Big Bang Theory is #1 most popular tv show in NZ, so the ratings are not just strong in the States and Canada 

Edited by 3ku11

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Vero, thanks for that link. It's been hit or miss for me on the Canadian ratings. There is enough there to possibly do a Canadian post. Of course, I have to find the time.

skull, I didn't mean to imply that other countries don't love TBBT. It was simply that I was doing a post about Canada and was mentioning that the country I was reporting the ratings for, loved the show. There are quite a few countries where TBBT is the top show. Something to remember (because their agents surely will) with the actors in negotiations to extend the series.

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Vero, thanks for that link. It's been hit or miss for me on the Canadian ratings. There is enough there to possibly do a Canadian post. Of course, I have to find the time.

skull, I didn't mean to imply that other countries don't love TBBT. It was simply that I was doing a post about Canada and was mentioning that the country I was reporting the ratings for, loved the show. There are quite a few countries where TBBT is the top show. Something to remember (because their agents surely will) with the actors in negotiations to extend the series.

Oh yeah I know diddn't mean to imply you did sorry if I did, just interesting to note how popular TBBT is internationally. TBBT has been #1 in NZ ever since it debuted, Taahm too but the past 3 years Taahm has declined a lot in ratings, TBBT has been growing and growing, it's been in syndication since 2009 too.

Edited by 3ku11

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Even in the UK the program is not on a main channel but last season with the final viewing figures they were regularly hitting 2 million or just below

Date night variable had the highest with 2.8 million

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Monday, 30 September, 2013 Alternative Ratings

Normally, in this slot, would be the Live + 7 data.  However, there is a two week delay in  the release of this data, and as this is the second week, we won’t get, the Live + 7 for the first time until next week.   

   

So, in place of if the Live + 7, I’m going to introduce everyone to two other different ways of looking at the ratings.  The website, Spotted Ratings has two different ways to look at it. (All numbers in this post are from Spotted Ratings). One is called 18-49+ (or, for shorthand, as the site calls it, Plus).  This method normalizes the average show for the particular season at 100.  Then, shows can be looked at how well they did against the average for that year and be compared between years.   The formal explanation and equations can be found here

 

This is very handy at comparing different seasons.  Since around 2000, broadcast television viewing has dropped precipitously (an average of 9% per year).  This makes comparing seasons on the basis of raw numbers, almost impossible.  

 

 For instance, TBBT averaged 5.25 in the 18-49 last year.   How does that compare to shows from previous seasons?  If we look at another Chuck Lorre show, Two and a Half Men (TAAHM), we find that in 2004-2005 it had a a 18-49 demo of 5.86, that’s over a half a point higher than TBBT in 2012-2013.   

 

Here’s the difference, that 5.86 in  2004-2005, based on the drop in broadcast viewing, would be equivalent to 3.04 18-49 rating today.   Using the Plus rating, that would be a 144 (remember, the average for the season is 100).  This system pegs that season as a hit (near big hit).  

 

So, what’s that 5.25 for BBT work out to be in the Plus?  Well, the plus rating for TBBT last year worked out to be a 249.   The second highest season for a comedy since 2000.  Only Friends last year, at 300, was bigger.  It’s raw 18-49 rating was 12.19, which would be a 6.33 now.   

 

To see how this comparison works, at Spotted Ratings, there are various comparisons, called The Top 10 of the last 10. The top ten comedy seasons over the last ten years .  Note that three of those seasons are by TBBT.

The other  Measure used on Spotted Ratings is called True.   It takes into account viewing levels (more people viewing on a night means more people available to watch), how big of a lead-in the show has (the more people the previous show has, people may not bother to change the channel),  competition (the bigger the shows your going against, the less people available to watch your show).    The specifics of these calculations can be found on Spotted Ratings here .

Edited by Tensor
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Tensor. Love your nuggets of knowledge. This will be my favorite thread after the Shamy. Thanks for your efforts and love of big data.

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Posted Tuesday 1 October, 2013 Weekly Rankings Week 1 Sept 22-28, 2013)

 

Sunday Night Football (SNF) was number one in both demo and viewers for the first week in the TV season.  TBBT, place both shows in the top five in demo (2 and 3) and Viewers (2 and 4).  Interestingly, the other two spots in both demo and viewers was filled by same franchise.   The Voice finished 4 and 5 in the demo and an NCIS show finished 3 and 5 in viewers.   The top ten follows.

 

Show                                    18-49       18-49 viewers

 

SNF                                           7.6            9,629,000

TBBT                                         6.1            7,784,000

TBBT                                         5.5            7,045,000

The Voice  (Mon)                       5.1            6,415,000

The Voice  (Tue)                        4.7            6,015,000

The OT (Football recap)            4.7            5,972,000

Marvel Agents of SHEILD.         4.7            5,936,000

Modern Family                           4.2            5,334,000

Football Night in America (Pre)  4.1            5,215,000

The Crazy Ones                         3.9            4,912,000

 

Some observations here.   The Crazy Ones benifited from their TBBT lead in.   In the 9:01 minute on Thursday, TBBT had a 6.8 demo rating (remember, TBBT at 8 PM ran to 8:31 and the 8:30 show ran to 9:01).  We'll find out just how big when we see next weeks numbers.   TBBT placed two shows in the top three for the week and it was the Number one and two scripted show.  The closest scripted show was Marvel Agents of SHEILD at 4.7.  The closest half hour comedy was Modern Family at 4.2, almost two full points behind the second half hour of Big Bang.

 

 

 

 

 

Total Viewers

 

 

Show                                    Total viewers

 

SNF                                          20,493,000

TBBT   8:30 PM                        20,439,000

NCIS                                         20.020.000

TBBT   8 PM                             18,994,000

NCIS:LA                                    16,353,000

The Crazy Ones                        15,516,000

The Voice  (Mon)                       14,983,000

The Voice  (Tue)                        14,351,000

Dancing With the Stars              13,565,000

The OT (Football)                       12,885,000

 

Again, The Crazy Ones seemed to have benifited by getting scheduled after the one hour TBBT, and, again, we'll see what happens to The Crazy Ones, when their lead in is "The Millers".  TBBT was the only scripted show to be in the top five in both viewers and demo.  The only other scripted show to make both lists was, The Crazy Ones, and we have to wait until next week to see if it holds up.  One, interesting point, TBBT was within ~50,000 viewers of SNF.  Since DVRing of Football isn't significant (if someone is going to watch the game, they do it at the time it is one) I would expect TBBT to beat SNF for total viewers, once the a "Live +" numbers start coming in.   

 

We'll cover Syndication tomorrow.  

 

Tensor

Edited by Tensor
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OK, I mentioned that I expected that once the Live + data started coming in, we'd see TBBT move to number 1 in viewers.  Well, here's the thing.  I can't find anything about the Live + 3 lift for Sunday Night Football (SNF), which tells me there wasn't much of a lift (not that I expected one).  However, TBBT had a 3 day lift of 3.93 million viewers for the 8 PM show, taking it to 22.92 million viewers.    At 8:30, TBBT added 4.23 Million bringing the total after three days to 24.67 million.   In the demo, the increase was 1.8 (to a 7.3.  A 33%  Increase) at 8 PM, and a 1.8 point increase (to a 7.9).     I want to point out that near the end of last year, TBBT was pulling in 4 to 4.5 million additional viewers FOR THE LIVE + 7.   This past week, they pulled in that amount of additional viewers in three days.     

These increases should make TBBT the #1 show for the week.  

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Tensor what's the most viewing figures they have had?

 

I'll have to go back and check, but I don't think it's ever hit 25 million, even with the seven day lift.  So that 24.67 million is very close to the highest already.   Let me look back and I'll update the post to include the highest numbers of viewers for the Live + 7

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Ok, TBBT has crossed the 23 million viewer threshold twice in Live + 7. "The Egg Salad Equivalency" hit 23.38 and "The Bakersfield Expedition" hit 23.81, with 7 day lifts of 4.13 and 3.81, respectively.

Three day totals, for Thursday, are 22.92 and 24.44, on lifts of 3.93 and 4.23. Notice that the three day totals are almost as high, in one case, and beat it, in the other case for last year's 7 day totals. This year's three day lift is a bit higher than the 7 day lift last year.

Edited by Tensor
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Tensor: There are some questions that I'd like to ask you to understand the ratings more precisely. Do the Live + 7 figures or more precisely the lifts (after the live broadcast) count equally towards raitngs and therefore potential ad revenue? After the Live + 7 is there anything else that needs to be taken into consideration to get a final ratings number for a particular episode? Thank you for all the info, and all the time you spend compiling it.

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Posted on 2 October, 2013  Syndication for Week 1.

 

During the first week of the Television season, TBBT finished in third place, behind Judge Judy(JJ) and Wheel of Fortune (WF).  In the household rating (we normally look at the 18-49 demo, but in syndication, it's more how many households and total viewers), JJ was first with a 7.1, WF had a 6.4[and TBBT was at 6.1.   WF was first in viewers with 9.96 million, JJ had 9.67 and TBBT with 9.63.     The weekend version of TBBT on TBS finished in 7th place with a 4.7 household rating and 6.58 million viewers.

 

If you look at the syndication ratings, you'll notice that four of the top ten (including the #1 and #3 programs) were football.  Due to a quirk of how the ratings are collected, football shows up in the syndication ratings, although it shouldn't.  What happens is that it is published with the syndication, then basically ignored on the list .

 

The following is an interesting little tidbit.  It was in a press promoting the NFL telecasts, but there was a mention of something else: Since Labor Day, NFL game telecasts rank as the nine most-watched shows on television and are the only programs along with the season premieres of CBS’ The Big Bang Theory (20.4 million) and NCIS(20.0 million) to draw at least 20 million viewers.

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Tensor: There are some questions that I'd like to ask you to understand the ratings more precisely. Do the Live + 7 figures or more precisely the lifts (after the live broadcast) count equally towards raitngs and therefore potential ad revenue? After the Live + 7 is there anything else that needs to be taken into consideration to get a final ratings number for a particular episode? Thank you for all the info, and all the time you spend compiling it.

This is a bit tricky to answer. The basis for ad rates are what is called the C3. That is the number of people who watch the program and WATCH THE COMMERCIALS (yes, the Nielsen boxes can track that). This number loosely tracks the Live + 3, so there is some interest in the Live + 3. And, before you ask why someone would watch the commercials if they can fast forward, they're left on while the watcher runs to another room, or they just forget to FF (I'm guilty of this), or they're involved in their computer or phone, etc.

The Live + SD is still used as it was before(except for setting ad rates), to give a general idea of how a show is doing, and is usually the deciding factor in whether or not a show is cancelled.

The Live + 7 has various uses. It gives an idea of overall performance(as it indicates how many people actually see it), it can be one of the deciding factors in a series' renewal(A strong performance in Live + 7 by one series and a weak performance by another might help the first one get renewed). Since it give an idea of total viewers, it's considered when talking about syndication deals.

One thing about the different measures. There are ads that are time sensitive (think movie openings, weekend sales, etc)and the ad people look at the Live + SD in those cases. The people placing an ad on a show on Thursday, about a movie opening on Friday, don't really care about DVR viewing, except for same day. The "+" ratings are also a good promotional vehicle for the networks. They can brag that his show is highest in DVR viewers, or this other show had their highest number of DVR viewers, etc.

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Thank you so much!  This rating thing is a litttle bit more complicated than I originally thought, but much more interesting as well. thanks again.

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Looking forward to the rating's coming in for 7.03, not sure what the exact number well be but anything over 15.0 mill would be really good.

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Looking forward to the rating's coming in for 7.03, not sure what the exact number well be but anything over 15.0 mill would be really good.

To be honest, I would disappointed with anything less than 17 million with a 5.3 or higher demo. Last year, the first two shows averaged 15.42 million, this year they averaged 19.72 million. Even accounting for the fact the two episodes last year were in separate weeks, that's more than four million more viewers per episode. Interestingly, the third episode last year("The Higg's Boson Observation") was the lowest rated episode last year, at 14.23 million. So a total viewers number at 15 million would be a disappointment. Even the 17 million I mentioned is pretty conservative as 17 Million viewers would be over a 10% drop, week to week.

That happened three times last year, all due to situations that don't apply here. The first drop over 10% was the week after the series high of 20 million viewers and a two week layoff. The second time was the week after the start of Daylight Savings time (the March 14th episode) and the final one was after a three week layoff (April 4 to April 25)

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To be honest, I would disappointed with anything less than 17 million with a 5.3 or higher demo. Last year, the first two shows averaged 15.42 million, this year they averaged 19.72 million. Even accounting for the fact the two episodes last year were in separate weeks, that's more than four million more viewers per episode. Interestingly, the third episode last year("The Higg's Boson Observation") was the lowest rated episode last year, at 14.23 million. So a total viewers number at 15 million would be a disappointment. Even the 17 million I mentioned is pretty conservative as 17 Million viewers would be over a 10% drop, week to week.

That happened three times last year, all due to situations that don't apply here. The first drop over 10% was the week after the series high of 20 million viewers and a two week layoff. The second time was the week after the start of Daylight Savings time (the March 14th episode) and the final one was after a three week layoff (April 4 to April 25)

Based on the number's from last year and the fact it is already up 4 million in audience from last year, and don't have all the numbers but I am sure it was consistently over at least 16 million. I am expecting at least 18 million - 20 million, that is what would be expected, but you are right anything below 17 million, would be an abnormal drop, like you said 17 mill would be a 10 % drop week to week, although I can see 7.03 pulling at least 19 mill it did a week ago, so cannot see such a significant drop like 10 % in a week.

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The overnights are out and TBBT had a 5.0 demo, with 17.75 million viewers. It was the highest rated demo (by almost a point and a half) and the most viewers(by four and a half million). Again, TBBT had over 50% of viewers at 8:00 PM. In Demo, TBBT beat the other three shows combined by a 5.0 to 4.5 and in viewers 17.75 to 13.01 Million. As a note, "The Crazy Ones", which last week had a 3.9 demo, with TBBT as a lead in dropped to a 2.9, with the new show "The Millers" as its lead in. A full report will be put up later, after the Thursday finals are available. Historically, TBBT increases by 1-3 tenths in demo and 500-750 thousand viewers when the finals come out.

Tensor

Note, the strike out above, was due to the early ratings not reporting the "Scandal" season reviews. With that reported the other four shows had a 6.1 demo (TBBT 5.0) and the other four now have about a million viewers more than TBBT.

Edited by Tensor
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