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Season 8 Ratings Thread


Tensor
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yes, but not to the degree you would think.   Cable numbers (sporting events included) are so much lower than broadcast.  Even #1 shows on cable in primetime don't even stand a chance (generally) against broadcast.  

 

So yes, sports can effect it, but not to the degree you would think.

i gotta believe though more fans might be warching the Bears and Jets than two small viewership area football teams.

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i gotta believe though more fans might be warching the Bears and Jets than two small viewership area football teams.

actually as somebody who lives in NY which is obviously Jets country...I can tell you that no more people were watching the game (granted from my feeds, co-workers, etc) than normally would be.  Yes, in those two regions the numbers might skew a little higher, but not to impact prime hugely.  Also, BBT/Voice are going after a different audience (aka demo) than NFL.  They don't really compete for the same viewers.  

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OK, I usually do the demo and viewers first, but I know there is interest in how the show performed.    In Households, the two shows pulled in 11.3 household rating with an 18 share (11.3/18) and a 11.1/17.   This is down 7% from last years 12.1/20 combined rating.    Last year there was 19.71 million with a 5.8 demo.   A seven percent drop would be 18.3 million, with a 5.4 demo.   For comparison, The Voice pulled in an 8.5/13 which was down about 8%.  Based on last years numbers, that would translate into 13.8 million with a 4.7.  I would expect to see a lower demo.  More as it arrives .  

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ok, just whipped through overnights from last night (all Live numbers, based off straight households) and it varies market by market...but Big Bang appears to have won in households, Voice #2, DWTS surprisingly did better than expected, then Gotham.  And HUT/PUT levels were EXTREMELY high which means majority of the country was watching TV last night.

 

FYI...to those that were concerned about NFL negatively impacting NSI numbers...in NY it was not the case.  Did about a 3.8 (the Jets game) compared to HH Live numbers of 12s for Big Bang (skewed back to a demo, those numbers become much smaller...although will grow with Live+SD and Live+7 information)

 

Just thought I'd share

Edited by kerrycec03

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I think the DVR numbers are going to be important for last night because a lot of the same people who watch TBBT would also watch Gotham.

Gotham's numbers were a 5.7/9, about half of TBBT. It finished fourth in it's time slot. Although it is

expected to have a good demo, based on its social media footprint. The problem is that high activity on social networks doesn't necessarily translate to Live + viewed as those viewers do the most time shifting or stream viewing.

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OK, here we go, 8.01 had a 5.4 with 17.80 million (compared to last years 5.3 with 18.30 million) and 8.02 had a 5.4, with 17.99 million (compared to last year 5.8 with 19.51million). For the hour, TBBT had a 5.4, with 17.90 million (compared to last years 5.7 demo and 18.90 million viewers) A full report along with comparisons to other shows, will be put up later this afternoon, when all the adjustments have been made. Traditionally, TBBT gets adjusted up by a tenth or two and about a half million viewers in the finals.
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Thanks for the info!

 

Since I have nada of understanding on ratings... Should we be like, concern for this? considering BB changed to Mondays after some years on Thursdays, this numbers should be expected, right? This shouldn't mean ppl are getting tired of the show, or that the stupid amount of cover on the $1 Mill issue made a negative impact, correct? I know only two episodes is little info to work on for a conclusion, but I had this questions nagging at me all day, I have to admit I was nervous to know the numbers and was avoiding them all day, but curiosity won me over  :icon_rolleyes:

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Thanks for the info!

 

Since I have nada of understanding on ratings... Should we be like, concern for this? considering BB changed to Mondays after some years on Thursdays, this numbers should be expected, right? This shouldn't mean ppl are getting tired of the show, or that the stupid amount of cover on the $1 Mill issue made a negative impact, correct? I know only two episodes is little info to work on for a conclusion, but I had this questions nagging at me all day, I have to admit I was nervous to know the numbers and was avoiding them all day, but curiosity won me over  :icon_rolleyes:

no, no concerns whats so ever....and on 10/30, when it goes back to Thursday (which CBS will be promo'ing up big time) it has even less competition.  Thursday right now, at 8PM....there nothing to threaten it.  Greys Anatomy is loosing its steam, NBC's Biggest Loser is so weak...and FOX is airing Bones....which has never pulled huge numbers. 

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no, no concerns whats so ever....and on 10/30, when it goes back to Thursday (which CBS will be promo'ing up big time) it has even less competition.  Thursday right now, at 8PM....there nothing to threaten it.  Greys Anatomy is loosing its steam, NBC's Biggest Loser is so weak...and FOX is airing Bones....which has never pulled huge numbers. 

 

Oh, okay. Thanks for dispel my doubts, tho ^^

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Here is the 2014-2015 ad rates . TBBT is the most expensive non-sports program, and the only non-sports show over $300,000 for a thirty second spot. I'll have a post on Monday about last season's ad rates vs ratings, along with some extrapolation for this year.

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I think that the neat thing is that regardless of actual numbers (up or down from last year, etc.), there's still a huge gap between TBBT and anything up against it, in terms of demo and viewers. :)

 

Not bad for a creaky old 8th season show. :)

I'll talk about that some in Monday's article, but TBBT rate went UP, this year. In general, mid-life shows (those at the 4-5 year point) dropped.

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From Deadline Hollywood: http://deadline.com/2014/09/big-bang-theory-gotham-blacklist-scorpion-sleepy-hollow-live3-ratings-842260/

 

Nice jump on the Live +3

 

'The Big Bang Theory' and 'Gotham' Lead Live +3 Gains For Fall Season Opening Night

 

CBS’ The Big Bang Theory once again had the biggest absolute gain, 2.0, for both of its 8 PM and 8:30 PM telecasts, on par with last fall premiere’s lift. The 8 PM season opener went up from a 5.4 to a 7.4 demo rating, edging last year’s 8 PM debut on Thursday, which climbed from a 5.3 to a 7.3.

 

Both Scorpion and Big Bang added more than 4 million total viewers (4.5 million for Big Bang and 4.1 million for Scorpion.)

 

So almost 22 million ended up watching the Monday episodes (live or not)! Yikes!

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I hope you enjoy or learned something for the Ratings wrap-up articles. The some terms, how ratings are determined, and the Live + Same day DVR viewing; the syndication; Live + Seven day DVR viewing, along with the “Official” ratings.
 
This article will look at just what, exactly, those ratings are mean in terms of ad rates. I will be comparing the ad rates for a 30 second ad on various shows, for the 2013-2014 season.  I’ll list how the the top ten did for the last three years. I'll look at how the ratings compare to the ad rates to see which shows are the lowest or highest costs.  I also present the ad rates for this year.  Unless otherwise stated, “spot” refers to the average cost of a 30 second ad.
 
First of all, most of the ad rates are set at the “Upfronts” in May, when the networks trot out their new fall schedules.   Most of the ads are bought “upfront” (hence the name) while a few are sold closer to when the show airs.  Ad Age questions some of the companies buying the ads, and get an estimate on what it will cost to run a spot on each show in the fall. 
 
One thing to remember, these are ESTIMATES, of the AVERAGE cost of a spot. For instance, in 2013-14 season, the average price of a spot for American Idol was $356,000.   However, during the end of the year, during the champion results show, the price can go much higher (in it’s heyday, it could pull in an spot rate of $1 million or higher).  Of course this means that some of it’s other nights are much less.  I used American Idol, but any competition show works out in a rather similar manner.
 
For scripted series, the difference is much less.  However, reruns command less money, and that is figured into the average.  With that in mind, here are the top ten shows, as far as ad rates for the 2013-2014 season and the ad rates for the same show for the past two seasons along with the increase or decrease for the show between 2012-13 and 2013-14:
 
 
Show……….………………2013-14........…..2012-13….......……2011-12….......….+/-
Sunday Night Football..…$594,000........…$545,000……..........$512,000.....….+49,000
American Idol (Wed)…….$356,000….........$341,000…........…..$502,000…......+14,000
The Big Bang Theory……$317,000......…..$276,000..................$198,000........+ 41,000
The Voice…………………$294,000.......….$239,000….......……$206,000......…+55,000
American Idol (Thur)…….$289,000….........$296,000…….......…$468,000…....…-7,000
Modern Family…………...$282,000........…$331,000…….......…$206,000.....….-50,000
The Voice(Tue)………..….$279,000….........$225,000……….......….N/A……......+54,000
New Girl.………….……….$237,000…........$321,000…..........….$225.000….....-84,000
The Simpsons…………….$232,000......…..$286,000…….......…$254,000…......-54,000
Scandal……………………$207,000…........$140,000………........….N/A…....….+67,000
 
Here is what the Top 10 looked like in:
 
2012-2013                                                                            2011-2012
 
Sunday Night Football……$545,000……..............Sunday Night Football......$512,000
American Idol  (Wed)……..$502,000…..................American Idol  (Wed)…..…$502,000
Modern Family………….…$331,000…..............…American Idol   (Thur)…....$468,000
New Girl.………….…….….$321,000……..............The X-Factor…………...…$321,000
American Idol (Thur)…..….$296,000…..............…Glee……..………………….$267,000
The Simpsons……………..$286,000…..............…Family Guy…………..…….$265,000  
 Family Guy………….……..$277,000….............…The Simpsons………..……$254,000
The Big Bang Theory……..$276,000…..............…Two and a Half Men…...…$252,000
Two Broke Girls……………$234,000..............……Modern Family.................. $249,000
Two and A Half Men………$207,000….............….Dancing with the Stars……$234,000
 
TBBT was in 12th place in 2011-2012.
 
Since advertisers mainly look at the 18-49 demo, lets do the same thing we did for the ad rates, for the 18-49 rankings and see how well they correlate (Note 2+/- is the difference between this year and two years ago:
 
Show…………………………….2013-14.......……2012-13….......…2011-12….......…+/-.......……2+/-
Sunday Night Football……….….7.9……..........……8.2…….......…….8.0…….......…-0.3…......…-0.1
The Big Bang Theory……………6.2….............…….6.2….......……….5.5….....………0.0.........…+0.7
The Voice (Mon)………………….4.6……..........……5.1………........…6.1….......…….-0.5….....…-1.5
Grey’s Anatomy.….………………4.4……..........……4.1.......………….4.2......……….+0.3......…..+0.2
Modern Family……….…………..4.4.….........………4.9…….......…….5.5…….......….-1.1….....…-0.5
The Blacklist**…..…………….….4.3………….........——.........……….——......……….N/A….....…N/A
How I Met Your Mother………….4.3.........………….3.7…….......….…4.1……......….+0.6…........+0.2 
Scandal**….……….………….…..4.2……….............2.8........………..——.....……….+1.4…......…N/A
The Voice** (Tue)………………....4.2…….............….4.6……........…..——….....….….-0.4…......…N/A
Resurrection*…………..………….3.8……….........…——…........…….——…….....…..N/A..........…N/A
 
 
*Resurrection and The Blacklist premiered in 2013-14, so no comparisons with previous years are possible.
 
**Scandal premiered in 2012-2013.  While The Voice premiered in 2011, there  was no Tuesday show until 2012.  So there is no comparisons with two years ago.
 
You may notice that some of the most expensive advertising, is on shows that are not in the top ten, in ratings. I’m going to show what I’ll call the cost per ratings point(CPRP).   This will show how much each ratings point cost, based on a 30 second spot. You do have to remember these rates are for a 30 second spot. Remember American Idol on Wed runs about 45 minutes, leaving 30 spots to run. That’s $10.6  MILLION per episode.
 
For 2013-14 Top Ten Ad Costs
Show......................................Spot Cost...............Demo Rating..................CPRP
Sunday Night Football…….….594,000…………………7.9…………………75,189
American. Idol (Wed)*…….…..356,000…………………3.3………………..107,878
The Big Bang Theory…………317,000…………………6.2…………………51,129
The Voice(Mon)………….….…286,000……….………..4.6………………….62,826
American Idol (Thur)*…………289,000…………………3.2………………….69,000
Modern Family……………..….282,000…………………4.4………………….64,090
The Voice(Tue)………………...279,000…..……………..4.2……………….…98,500
New Girl*……………………….237,000…………………2.7………………..118,888
The Simpsons*……………..…232,000…………………3.2………………….72,500
Scandal…………………………207,000……...…………4.2…………………49,285
 
*Both nights of American Idol, New Girl, and The Simpsons did not finish in the top ten demo for the year.  They are on the top ten ad costs, mostly because of their previous demo levels.  American Idol, and New Girl fell hard in demo this year.  This explains why those four have a higher ad costs per ratings point.   Family Guy, Two Broke Girls, and Two and A Half Men all fell off the top ten ad costs this year.
 
 
 
Last year, TBBT’s CPRP was around 41,000 and it was by far the lowest cost in the top ten.  While TBBT’s ad cost went up, it’s rating of 6.2 stayed the same (as it did this year, interestingly).  This years low CPRP, in the top ten costs, was Scandal.  This series is in it’s third year and it’s ad cost is increasing, but it’s ratings have also been going up.   
 
Ad rates are pretty much set at before the beginning of the season (at he Upfronts) , and are mostly based on the previous year’s performance (there are some residual, show reputation thing going on). A good example of this can be seen in the numbers for the TBBT and Modern Family. In 2012-13 TBBT had a  5.53 demo, and Modern Family had a 5.54, not much of a difference(Modern Family had 23,000 more demo viewers.  In Total Viewers, TBBT had 15.82 million and Modern Family had 12.93 Million, three million more total viewers. 
 
While TBBT was virtually tied with Modern Family in Demo, it was pulling in almost three million more people.  Yet, Modern Family was getting $55,000 more per 30 second spot.  It was getting $331,000, while TBBT was getting $276,000, based on the previous years ratings (and also the Emmy buzz for Modern Family) ,  Based on the previous years ratings, it would cost $60,181 for a ratings point on Modern Family and $50,181 for TBBT
 
However, by the end of the year, Modern Family dropped to a 4.9 demo rating and TBBT rose to a 6.2.  The result of setting ad prices at the beginning of the season is that that $55,000 more per spot cost, ended with 1.3 rating points less than TBBT. Modern Family pulled in 12.31 million viewers,  over six million less than TBBT 18.68 million viewers.  This means that the actual cost 67,555 per ratings point for Modern Family and  $44,516 for a ratings point on TBBT.
 
This years (2014-2015) ad rates have already been released.  TBBT has the highest ad price for an broadcast entertainment (non-sports) show.  Here are the top ten, with a comparison with last year.
 
For 2014-15 Top Ten Ad Costs
Show..............................................Spot Cost……....…….2013-14…....……….+/-
Sunday Night Football…….........….627,000………....……594,000………..+33,000
Thursday Night Football**.…...........483,000………...……….N/A
The Big Bang Theory……….........…345,000…………...….317,000……….+28,000
The Blacklist…………………...........283,000……………....201,000……..…+82,000
The Voice(Mon)…………..........……274,000..……………..286,000…….….-12,000
The Voice(Tue)………………...........254,000...……………..279,000…….….-25,000
American. Idol (Wed)*………...........243,000…...…………..356,000………-113,000
Modern Family…………….........….240,000……...………..282,000……..…-42,000 
New Girl……………..……........……236,000………...……..237,000…………-1,000
American Idol (Thur)*……........……225,000…………...…..279,000…….….-54,000
 
 
 
*American Idol is going through some changes.  As a result, the ad rates listed above for the show are a bit more speculative than the rest of the rates right now.
**Thursday Night Football is a new show, and as a result, does not have comparisons to last year.  
 
Three shows fell off the top ten from last year.  New Girl’s ad rates fell from $237,000 last year, to $187,000 this year.  The Simpsons’ ad rate fell from $232,000 last year, to $190,000 this year.  And, finally, Scandal’s ad rate actually rose, from $207,000 to $217,000, but it didn’t rise enough to keep it ahead of other shows.
 
Now, notice I said that TBBT has the highest entertainment broadcast ad rates.  I qualified that with broadcast as there is a show that is getting higher ad rates, but it’s not on broadcast.  It is “The Walking Dead”, on AMC, which is pulling in 400,000 for a thirty second spot.  However, since ad packages on cable include multiple showing on the same night, it can be difficult to directly compare broadcast and cable ad rates.    
 
 
Let’s look at what that means for TBBT. I’m going to use $350,000 per spot, to simplify the math, even though that figure is tad above the average spot price for this year.  Over the last two years, TBBT has averaged 7 repeat episodes (remember, that spot price is the average of all episodes) so we’ll use 31 episodes (24 new + 7 repeats) and see where that takes us.
 
Normally, a 30 minute comedy show runs 22 minutes, with 8 minutes of commercials. However, for the past two years, TBBT has been running an average of about 20 minutes and change (It was less in 2012-13, just under 20 minutes). So, we’ll use 20 minutes of run time and 11 minutes of ad time. Why 11, for a half hour comedy? Well, CBS has been running TBBT to 8:31PM (Eastern time), which allows them to add an extra minute of ad time, at the TBBT rate.
 
So, now that we have all the numbers, let’s figure this out. 11 minutes of ad time, is 22 30 second spots. If we use $350,000 for the spot price, that means one show of TBBT brings in approximately $7.7 Million. Now, if you run 31 episodes, that means that TBBT can expect to bring in about $238 MILLION in ad revenue to CBS.
 
Note to Kerry: I know that there are local commercial spots, and some other things that get moved around.  I’m just using the full ad time as network ads, to simplify calculations and explanations.  
 
The license fee for TBBT has been estimated to be right around 5 million per episode (again, I’m using the same license fee per show, even repeats.  That means that CBS is paying about 155 million dollars for season 8 of TBBT.   So the show will bring in about 83 million in profit for CBS.
 
Warner Brothers is getting that 155 million that CBS is paying.  I’m going to go to year 10 for this part.  At that point, baring changes, cast salaries alone, will be in the range of 5.5 million (the license fee may go up also, but not enough to affect my example).    Now, if you’re wondering why Warner Brothers would pay the cast an amount (not to mention all the money they are paying the crew)  that guaranties they won’t make a profit, you are missing syndication.  
 
For example, estimates place the price paid by TBS and Fox independent stations together at 2 million per episode (TBS $1,500,000, Fox $500,000.  That means, that every episode that TBS airs, they pay Warner Brothers $1,500,000.  That is with no production costs, as the episode has already been paid for. 
 
Now, there are some things that have to be paid out of that money.  Bill Prady and Chuck Lorre are probably getting a fairly decent cut (along with Molaro having a smaller cut). the actors that have back end points(if we assume an average of 1% for each actor (again, simplifying the math, Jim, Kaley and Johnny are reportedly getting 1.25%)), the actors get $15,000 per episode).
 
For, say, a Tuesday night when TBS runs six episodes, Warner Bothers is pulling in 9 Million dollars and the actors are pulling in $90,000 each.  This should give you an idea of how much WB is pulling in, compared to the actors.  
 
 New contracts will have to be drawn up for the syndication for seasons 8-10 and I’m sure there will be secondary sales to other off network stations.  So, yeah, with as much as Warner Brothers is pulling in, I’m not sure why people get pissed about the actors wanting their cut.  
 
 
This is the end of the season seven wrap ups.   This week I’ll start the regular weekly reports, until TBBT moves to Thursday.  We still have one more week before we get the Live + 7 for premiere week.   On Tuesday I’ll post the overnights and finals.  Wednesday will be a look at the top ten shows in demo and viewers, for the previous week.  Thursday will be a look at syndication, and I’m reserving Friday for news and notes, or a post looking at something specific, like this one.    If there are any questions, feel free to ask me in the Forum. It’s much easier to answer there.

 

Tensor

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LOL....appreciate the preemptive "shout out" Tensor.....I salute you on the national ratings information.....But I am the queen of the local spot DMA info....LOL......

 

The upfront rates usually do set the bar.  And whats more shocking is how much upfront weight isn't sold until deep into 3Q.  Of course the programs in your top 10 are usually sold out.  But some "packages...aka bought for the entire quarter" drastically can create the overall pricing climate for that program.  Everything in the advertising world is purely based off the CPP (Cost-per-point...ie cost-per-rating demo point).  So for a program to see increases, their numbers should be trending up.  FOX is in deep trouble this year as reports have already suggested that advertisers are pulling out of some of their quarter commitments on failing programs. 

 

 

So, with the figures that Tensor put out there....even more money is generated by the program when you factor in how much is made on the local spot side. 

 

In the first half hour (Mon/8-830PM) for tonight's airing...There is 6 minutes of local-spot advertising time.  Thats essentially 12 actual :30sec local spots (BUT, this includes the lead-in break coming out of syndicated PA-Prime Access which accounts for 3 minutes of the local-spot advertising time).  The lead-in break we sell as the program though

On the local side, we sell half hour programs by the hour, as local breaks are constantly moved to accomodate the "healthier" costly national breaks.

 

That being said, an average BBT rate for a DMA ranked between 20-70 (as most DMAs in the top ten are OAO--owned & operated by the network) is around $1800-$3600 (this is for tonight's broadcast).  So, thats about 28K made off the first half-hour.  With commissions, affiliate network costs (which is the money that goes to CBS, WB and then our beloved cast and such), roughly a station's "take home" is around 50-65% of that figure.

 

So for 1 station, thats about 20K for each half hour new episode (rough estimate).  With 210 DMAs, thats approx 4.2 million made off the BBT for the local affiliates...For 1 half-hour of their primetime line-up.

 

 

Not sure if anybody cares about the local info...but there you have it. 

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Thank you so much for the local info Kerry. Yep, I did the shout out as I know you are more versed than I in the local detail. As these numbers are averages of estimates, something like this is not rigorous. That said, I wanted to make clear that there are other considerations that didn't materially affect the argument presented here. Again, thanks for the local detail.

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On the local side, we sell half hour programs by the hour, as local breaks are constantly moved to accomodate the "healthier" costly national breaks.

 

 

 

So, I'm guessing that with way CBS has set up Mondays for the next month or so, a lot of those local breaks will be moved to the second half hour, the one with the repeat.  

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The fast Nationals for 8.03 The First Pitch Insufficiency. In Households, it pulled in 10.8 household rating with an 16 share (11.3/18 last week) and the repeat at 8:30(The Romance Resonance) had a 7.8/11. For comparison, Scorpion and Dancing with the Stars both pulled in an 8.7/13, for second Place. I'll have the overnights up around, 11:30 AM eastern time.

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