Season 10 Ratings Thread

[Tensor]

Five days to go before the season starts, and so I have this ready for the season, this is the first post in the Season 10 ratings thread.  Similar to the last couple of years, here are the plans for the ratings, while TBBT is on Monday:

Monday's will have the Live + 3 and the Live + 7.   Live + 3 is usually delayed by a two weeks and Live + 7 is usually delayed by three weeks.  I usually get the Live + 3 on Sunday so that will be up first, most of the time.  I usually put the Live + 7 is up around noon EST (1600-1700) UTC. 

Tuesday will have the the Live + Same Day ratings.  This includes the overnights, including households, demo, and viewers, along with the final daily ratings for TBBT.  Households is usually out around 9:30-10 AM EST.  The overnight demo and viewers is usually out around 11:30 AM EST.  The final daily ratings are usually out around 4:30-5:30 PM EST.  

Wednesday will have the top ten programs for the previous week for demo and viewers.  Also, around noon. 

Thursday will have the syndication ratings for two weeks previous. Again, around noon.

Friday will usually be an off day, but I will occasionally write a post on some kind of ratings information. 

Other members, if they have the data, have provided the ratings for other countries.  In the past members have provided ratings from Canada, Germany, and The United Kingdom.   

 

Once TBBT moves to Thursday, on the 24th of October, the order changes a bit.   The post for the top ten programs for the previous week moves to Tuesday.  The syndication post moves to Wednesday, and the overnight and final ratings posts move to Friday.   Thursday becomes the day where an information post will go.   

While the times listed above are the usual times I get the ratings, holidays, and various other things sometimes delay the information.   If it will be delayed (or even not available), I usually try to let everyone know with a post.  

As I've done for the last several years,  I'll be putting up a post on what exactly those terms (Live + SD, Live + 7, demo, etc) mean, and how the ratings are gathered, so new members, who don't know those terms, will be able to follow along.  And, of course, if anyone has a question, feel free to post it in this thread and I'll do my best to answer it.

I'll also have a post on how TBBT did last year (I did one at the end of the year, but I'll put a shortened version here), compared to 2014-15 and 2015-16, along with how it did compared to other shows last year.   There will also be some information on how TBBT repeats did last year (hint, the repeat ratings were higher than the average of all the first run shows).  

And toward the end of September, I usually get an estimate of the ad rates for the coming year and I have done a post comparing the previous years and the ten shows with the highest ad rates.  

Tensor

 

Tensor

[Tensor]

To begin the season, I'll explain how the Nielsen company gets the data, and what some of the terms mean.  

The Nielsen company gathers data in several ways, from a couple of different electronic boxes that are attached to the television, set top box, or DVR to the old fashioned diary method. Nielsen still uses the older diary method (where people write in what they are watching) for several reasons.  First, to validate their statistical model.  Remember, the Nielsen’s are a statistical measure.  The diaries can also be compared to the set top boxes (both regular and People Meters).  Using this, they can verify that their calculations on the boxes is correct, as the more data you have, the more accurate your results will be.  Also, Nielsen uses the diaries  to gather further demographic data to assist advertisers in targeting specific ages, genders, incomes, eductions, etc).

There are some boxes that just record the channel that is being watched.  Again, these are compared to the diaries to validate their statistical model, but are also used to get some quick data.   These are also, what are called  “People Meters”.   Homes that have People Meters, have individuals enter their specific ID (which is tied to their age and gender) and these meters track what those people are watching, even if they are just channel surfing. In the case of DVRs, it measures what has been recorded and watched up to thirty days after it was on.

People with their ID number sign in and out of the people meters, each time they start or stop watching TV. In the case of multiple people watching the same TV, the ID allows the meter to track how many and when people are watching. The meter can track someone who turns the TV on, and if another person signs in, shows two people watching the same program. If the original person leaves by signing out, it will still be tracking what the other person is now watching.

Usually, each August, Nielsen estimates the number of households in the US that have televisions to use during the season. The current number of households, from August of 2016, is 118,400,000, with 301 million viewers, age 2 and older.  Note, this is not how many households are tracked by Nielsen, but is the estimated total number, so the various breakdowns can be extrapolated, statistically, to the total number of households and viewers, along with the various breakdowns.

Here are the various terms I usually use in the ratings articles. 

Overnights (or Fast Nationals):  Are the preliminary ratings based on 56 metropolitan areas and is based on the Live + Same Day ratings.   Overnights are based on what was scheduled in a specific time.  TBBT starts the season on Monday's, at 8 PM.  So, in overnights, it is assumed that a box tuned to CBS at 8 PM on Monday, is watching TBBT.   

Final Ratings: are the Overnight ratings, including adjustments for various reasons.  For example, lets say a Chicago station has a special news bulletin for damage by a tornado in the Chicago area, or what happens a lot in the fall, a local football team is playing, the number of people watching the CBS station in Chicago would be deducted from the overnight ratings.  Final ratings also include adjustments made when actual numbers (those are originally estimated based on the metropolitan areas) outside the 56 Metropolitan areas are reported.    Also as CBS typically runs TBBT until 8:31.  That extra minute can add a one or two tenth increase.  

Live + Same Day (SD): The number of households (and viewers) that watched a program, including DVR viewing until 3 a.m. locally, the next day. At 3 a.m., the data is automatically sent to Nielsen from the box.  The overnights are usually released around 11 to 11:30 AM EST.  The finals are usually released around 4-5 PM EST.  

Live + 3: The number of households (and viewers) that watch a program up to three days after the program airs. Again, there is a 3 a.m. cutoff.  The Live + 3 became widely available last year.  Prior to that, the Live + 3 was used by networks to promote a show's  unusual increase.

Live + 7: The number of households (and viewers) that watch a program up to seven days after the program airs. With the 3AM cutoff.  Live + 7 comes out on the Monday three weeks after the week the show was broadcast.

Currently  a rating called C3 is used to set advertising rates.  The difference between C3 and Live + 3 is the number of people watching the show, up to three days after the it airs.  The C3 is the number of people who watch the the show AND THE COMMERCIALS.   It has been shown that the C3 closely tracks the Live + SD (note, not the Live + 3).   
Ratings Point: The percentage of TV households out of all TV households, or percentage of a particular total or demo that are watching a particular program.

Ratings Share: The percentage of households (or a particular total or demo), WHO HAVE THEIR TV ON, out of all households (or a particular total or demo) that are watching a particular program.

Note that a Ratings point is one percent of the total households with a TV. Ratings Share point is one percent of the total households with a TV ON. For a simplified example, lets say the total number of TVs is 100 and there are 50 of them on. If 10 TVs are tuned to a specific program, the ratings point would be 10 (10 is 10% of 100). The ratings share would be 20 (10 is 20% of 50).

Total Viewers: The total number of people watching a particular program. More than one person could be viewing a program in one house, say a family of four.

Demo: This is the various breakouts of the Ratings points and shares.  Age, gender, education level, race, etc. are all different demos.   Most of the publicly available breakouts are based on age.   In general, (I say this as I myself, am an exception to these generalizations) those people over 50 watch the most broadcast TV.   The demo of 18-49 is, currently, what is used in ratings, as this group watches less than those over 50, so advertisers want to advertise on those show that have more of those viewers.   The demo of 18-34 watch the least amount of broadcast TV, so shows that have this demo are really looked at closely by advertisers.    Unless otherwise specified, the term demo, when used in these posts, means the 18-49 demo.

My next post will be looking at how TBBT did last year, compared to the previous two years.   If there are any questions, please feel free to ask and I'll try my best to give you an answer. 

[Tensor]

Week 01 Early Household Ratings and Top 25 Markets; 20 September, 2016

Well, here's our first look at the 2016-2017 ratings. 

TBBT ran the season 10 premiere episode last night, 10.01 The Conjugal Conjugate at 8:00 PM and it had a 10.6 Household Rating, with a  17  share (9.8/17).  Compare to last seasons premiere of 11.6/17 this was down 9%.

In households, number one for the night was TBBT with that 10.6/17.   In second was The Voice with a 8.0 Household and a 8.0 share  In third was Dancing with the Stars with a 7.6 Household and a 11 share.

 

In the top 25 demo, TBBT was in first with a 4.1.  In second was The Voice with a 3.3, and in third was Kevin Can Wait with a 2.3.  Dancing with the Stars, which was in third in households, is an older skewing show and had a 1.8 in the top 25.  Kevin Can Wait's drop from TBBT was almost identical to the drop, last year, of Life in Pieces.

The Top 25 is simply the demo for the top 25 demographic areas.  These usually have a set top box which enables us to get a quick read on the demo.  This is not the final demo, it is simply a first look.  The rest of the demographic areas are compiled and the total overnight demo is released around 11:30.  

For those worried about the ratings there is this tidbit:   Both the second and third place shows were only down a bit (about a tenth or two) and yet TBBT was still two to three points up in Households.  

I'll get to the overnight demo and viewers when they come in.

Tensor 

[Jonny]

Could the change of day (for football) had a slight impact on the ratings? People obviously last watched it on a Thursday right? Sometimes the change in day might catch some people off. I guess that would pose the question historically has there been any evidence of rating changes depending on the day its shown. I am assuming this isn't the first time then have moved it during football season?

The again I could be talking a load of rubbish.

Edited September 20, 2016 by Jonny

[kerrycec03]

13 minutes ago, Jonny said:

Could the change of day (for football) had a slight impact on the ratings? People obviously last watched it on a Thursday right? Sometimes the change in day might catch some people off. I guess that would pose the question historically has there been any evidence of rating changes depending on the day its shown. I am assuming this isn't the first time then have moved it during football season?

The again I could be talking a load of rubbish.

no last year it started on Mondays and switched to Thursdays.  No change on that front.

 

This year there is a spike in actual cable news in primetime (I know crazy).  I'm interested if that factor (because of the upcoming election) will play a factor. 

 

 

Edited September 20, 2016 by kerrycec03

[Vittoria Jacoel]

Guys,the factor that counts that TBBT household is first![emoji4]this is one point!now we must see the ratings!cross fingers!


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[Tensor]

Week 01 Overnights and Demo Breakouts for 20 September, 2016

 

CBS ran the premiere of TBBT 10.01 The Conjugal Conjugate.  It pulled in a 3.6 demo, with a 13 share and 15.44 million viewers.  This was down, from last years premiere overnight numbers, by just under a point in Demo (4.5), a drop of 20% and down 2.5 million from last years viewers (17.63 million) a drop of 13%.  This was down more than most expected.   We'll see where it goes in the finals.  The show was up from last years finale, three tenths in demo, a million in viewers.    

TBBT was number one in demo with that 3.6.   In second was The Voice with a 3.3.  In third was Kevin Can Wait with a  2.6 (interestingly, that was even with last years Life in Pieces, even with TBBT down a point),   For viewers, TBBT was first with the 15.44 million viewers.  In  second was The Voice with 12.00  million viewers.  And in third was Kevin Can Wait, with 11.15 million viewers. 

 In the 18-34 demo, The Voice was in first  with a 2.4,  In second was TBBT at 2.1, and in third was NBC's new show, The Good Place, with a 1.6,.    In the 25-54 demo, TBBT was first with a 4.7 demo. In second,  was The Voice with a 4.1, and in third was Kevin Can Wait,  with a 3.7.   

I should point The Voice's demos (in all categories) are an average of it's two hours.   In the 18-49 demo, it had a 3.0 during it first hour and a 3.5 in it's second hour.   In the 18-34 demo, The Voice had a 2.2 in it's first hour and a 2.6 in it's second.   In the 25-54 demo, it had a 3.8 in it's first hour and a 4.4 in it's second.  In the half hour it was in direct competition with TBBT it's numbers were a 2.9 demo with  10.53 million viewers.  The increase after TBBT theory brought it's average up.  

  The finals will be up later, when I get them. Tensor

[Tensor]

2 hours ago, Jonny said:

Could the change of day (for football) had a slight impact on the ratings? People obviously last watched it on a Thursday right? Sometimes the change in day might catch some people off. I guess that would pose the question historically has there been any evidence of rating changes depending on the day its shown. I am assuming this isn't the first time then have moved it during football season?

The again I could be talking a load of rubbish.

Actually, in the last two years of moving the show due to football, the Monday ratings have been higher than the Thursday rating, on average.    

[Vittoria Jacoel]

we must wait the final ratings!


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[Tensor]

If they show is lucky, it will stay pretty much where it is.  It went up two tenths and 600,000 viewers between the overnights and the finals last year.  With it's overnights this year, it is very possible that it doesn't increase as much as that this year.  

[Vittoria Jacoel]

Do you think that it is a bad result?


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[Jonny]

4 minutes ago, Tensor said:

If they show is lucky, it will stay pretty much where it is.  It went up two tenths and 600,000 viewers between the overnights and the finals last year.  With it's overnights this year, it is very possible that it doesn't increase as much as that this year.  

It's also the competition though right? If the numbers drop a bit sure they would be concerned but if it's still for the most part beating all of its rivals they care about that a lot.

Edited September 20, 2016 by Jonny

[Tensor]

Yeah...mostly...but there are if's and but's about it.  

If the ratings drop (and we won't know for sure or how much until we get several weeks more data), that would mean they could get less for the ads, which could affect how much CBS is willing to pay to keep it on the air.

 There has always been a vague "If the ratings hold up" in any discussion here of renewing the show.  Last year, the show premiered to a 4.7, and finished the year with an average of 3.7.   Here we have the show premiering at 3.7 (it should go there in the finals), which means we could see it drop to the upper 2s, as an average for the season.  FWIW, I think it's going to stay in the low 3s for the yearly average. 

And, it's not so much declining viewers, it's that the audience is aging (which is to be expected of a ten year old show).   Look at the breakdown in ratings.  TBBT actually finished second to The Voice in the youngest demo (18-34), but TBBT beat The Voice by a full point in the 25-54 ratings.  And although I don't get the 55+ ratings, I'm willing to be TBBT crushes The Voice in that particular demo.

However, the add rates are based on the 18-49 (and if you have a large 18-34, that's even better).  There comes a time in every shows life where it simply costs the network more than it can bring in during a television season.  Sometimes, those shows are kept on for a variety of reasons.  Think The Good Wife.  That lost money, during each season, during it's last few years.   But, it was a "Prestige" show, and CBS was able to keep it on because CBS controlled the rights to syndication.   Which meant CBS could make back the lost money, during a season, in syndication rights. 

One of the problems with TBBT is that it has a large cast, who get a lot of money.  And, networks pay most if not all the salary.   And CBS can't make that money back in syndication, because Warner Brothers controls syndication.  In addition to salary, CBS has to pay Warner Brothers a license fee.  

This drop could complicate the negotiations.  Does CBS willing pay all the salaries?  Does Warner Brothers cover some of that with backend for the actors?  Does Warner Brothers reduce or eliminate the license fee?  The last contract was mostly about how much CBS was going to be willing to pay the actors.  Warner Brothers is going to be a much bigger part of the show staying on the air after a tenth season.  

I still think they get it done, but this does throw a bit more uncertainty into whether the show stays on past this season.  

[Vittoria Jacoel]

Do you think there are good possibilities that the show will on air for another season?
I want to ask if each episode of the show is n1 in ratings in this season Do you think there are good possibilities that the show will on air for another season?


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[Tensor]

Week 01 Final Ratings For Tuesday, September 20, 2016.  For broadcasts, 19 September, 2016

At 8:00 PM, the new episode of TBBT, 9.01, The Conjugal Conjugate, brought in a 3.8, with 15.82 million people, up two tenths  in demo and up (380,000) viewers from the overnights. This was still down nine tenths from last years premiere, and down 2.38 million viewers.  

In first place, for demo, was TBBT with that 3.8.  In second was The Voice at 3.3 , even with the overnights.  In third was  the new show Kevin Can Wait, with a 2.6, even with the overnights.  This was a pretty good premier for Kevin Can Wait.  It had the same demo as Life in Pieces did a year ago, but with a point less lead in.  

For viewers, TBBT was number one with those 15.82 million viewers. The Voice was second with 12.10 million, up 100,000 from the overnights.  Kevin Can Wait was in third at 11.08 million viewers, down 70,000 from the overnights.  

This is the first time a premiere has finished below a 4.0 since season two.   It dropped nine tenths from last years premiere, and dropped 2.3 million people.  Last year's premiere dropped eight tenths from the season eight, but it increased viewers by almost 200,000 from season eight.  

Both The Voice and Kevin Can Wait were almost level with the second and third place shows last year, indicating the drop for TBBT was real.   

 

Tensor

[Vittoria Jacoel]

The show is in a bad situation?


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[Shamyyes]

Thank you, Tensor for sharing your knowledge with us. We will wait to see where it all settles. 

[Tensor]

It's tough to say it's in trouble.  The Show is still probably higher, in demo, than any other show except Empire and should be higher than any except NCIS (although with the cast changes, we'll have to wait to see if they maintain their viewers).   There are simply several questions.  Is the show going to drop more in the weeks ahead?  If it does drop more, by how much?  If it does drop, how is this going to affect the negotiations and possible renewal.  The problem is we have no way of knowing the answer to any of those questions.  

[kerrycec03]

15 hours ago, Tensor said:

It's tough to say it's in trouble.  The Show is still probably higher, in demo, than any other show except Empire and should be higher than any except NCIS (although with the cast changes, we'll have to wait to see if they maintain their viewers).   There are simply several questions.  Is the show going to drop more in the weeks ahead?  If it does drop more, by how much?  If it does drop, how is this going to affect the negotiations and possible renewal.  The problem is we have no way of knowing the answer to any of those questions.  

I would also like to add something VERY important in regards to LPM/OVERNIGHT markets & skews.  In Jan'16 a new methodology on NSI information occurred in all overnight markets.  This has drastically brought overall demo ratings down across all overnight markets for most "boomer stations" ie the CBS & NBC affiliates (aka those that formerly were diary markets and skewed older).  The levels have dropped due to this new methodology.  SO while on first glance it appears the audience is down (and it is I'm not denying it) BUT not in comparision to the same levels especially once the monthly books come out.  I have reports that show the difference between methodology and its very glaring to see CBS and then NBC as a whole drop while ABC remains sorta flat and CW (and FOX) gain....its all do to the younger people not filling out diaries to the same degree as older.

In Feb'15 these overnight markets began releasing Parallel Data books along with regular survey books.   So we have a years worth to compare.

 

Also, as Tensor pointed out BBT has always been a heavily DVR'd show, so when it comes down to the Live+3 and Live+7 data they'll grow higher as The Voice & DWTS (traditional reality) aren't usually DVR'd as much.  Now we live & sell in a Live+SD world BUT with more agencies being open to calculate other methods of TV viewing in their buys & accounting processes (ie mobile, etc) BBT actually might increase.

 

Just more food for thought.  I'm not concerned and I sell the program.  Plus wait to see trends. That's key.  No national buy makes a cut or an add simply off 1 episode of a scripted show.  Nor would a studio make a decision that quickly on a 10+ year show.

[Tensor]

Thanks Kerry, I was hoping you would ad (  )  your thoughts.   I think I have most of it right, but there are things I just don't get to see, 

[kerrycec03]

1 minute ago, Tensor said:

Thanks Kerry, I was hoping you would ad (  )  your thoughts.  

I've been DYING for the new season for this reason too!!

[Vittoria Jacoel]

The real important thing is the TBBT is first in ratings![emoji6]


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[mjc45]

@Tensor , @kerrycec03 i just watch it  look like the

show run for about 24 mins, would the ad people like that,

would they pay a lower rate. do we not get about 18-19 mins a show.

thanks

[kerrycec03]

3 hours ago, mjc45 said:

@Tensor , @kerrycec03 i just watch it  look like the

show run for about 24 mins, would the ad people like that,

would they pay a lower rate. do we not get about 18-19 mins a show.

thanks

the amount of time doesn't effect the cost EXCEPT taking away time from commericals so the longer the runs isn't the best for me Kerry personally because it comes from a local break as a network wouldn't DARE take any time from a network break. 

[Tensor]

Just to mention, they currently run the show until 8:31.  That allows them to charge ad rates based on TBBT until 8:31.   Friends ran in a 45 minute slot several times during it's run.  That would give them approximately 29 minutes of run time, with 16 minutes of commercials.  But, I'm not quite sure how that would work as far as production costs and it also mess with the rest of their schedule for the night.